CAD/JPY - Live Rate, Forecast, News and Analysis

http://twitter.com/forex_in_world/status/1262009978405244928Chart Art: Retracements and Retests on USD/JPY and USD/CAD’s Charts https://t.co/aH5reYE3TJ— FOREX IN WORLD (@forex_in_world) May 17, 2020

http://twitter.com/forex_in_world/status/1262009978405244928Chart Art: Retracements and Retests on USD/JPY and USD/CAD’s Charts https://t.co/aH5reYE3TJ— FOREX IN WORLD (@forex_in_world) May 17, 2020 submitted by Red-its to forextweet [link] [comments]

Best Free Daily Forex Signals on Elliott Wave Analysis, Chart Strategy - USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, AUD - Action Forex

submitted by ageanvelos to Economist [link] [comments]

Day #2 of my Forex Journey

Real quick before I get into my next steps of my FX Journey, id like to say thank you to all the people who commented on my last post! All of the tips I got were really eye-opening and introduced me to different parts of FX trading that I didn't even know existed. So thank you so much, and I hope to get more interesting feedback from you guys in the future! Also Im going to probably change my writing frequency from daily to biweekly. I think writing about every little trade is not going to be as beneficial to me as writing about my overall progress at certain points throughout the week.
I started this trading day out by learning up on order flow. A whole bunch of you guys suggested really interesting youtubers to watch, and I started with Mr. pip's series on order flow. After I finished up watching a few of his videos, I started to tweak my trading plan so that I could get in some chart time. I changed currency pair from EUUSD to the AUD/USD, the time frame from the 4 hour to the 1 hour, and my indicators from RSI, Stochastic, 2 SMAs and ADX to ATR, RSI, and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. I also added a little fundamental analysis in my trading plan because I think that I am being far too reliant on my indicators. I planned to check the economic calendar and determine the general trend of the currency pairs that are strongly correlated to the AUD/USD before I began my chart analysis. In addition to all of my analysis, I tried to practice using the techniques I learned in Mr. Pip's videos and analyze the order flow of the chart. Even if my analysis of order flow is wrong, as long as I am getting practice I am learning.
Eventhough I planned to use today to back-test indicators and find a solid new plan, I did not have enough time. I ended up getting on my demo account really late in the day, and started to force myself to enter a trade. Destructive habits like this could lead into some massive issues when I eventually get into live trading. To combat this harmful attitude specifically, I will restrict myself to trading on certain parts of the day (for example session overlaps, news releases, and earlier in the day). Despite this mistake I still continued with my trading strategy. I calculated all the currency correlations for AUS/USD using the past weeks economic data, and set my indicators in place. After checking the overall trend of the most strongly correlated pairs (Positive: EUUSD, GPB/USD, Negative: USD/CAD, USD/JPY) I started to analyze the order flow. All the correlated currencies, except for EUUSD, indicated that the AUD/USD would fall, while my order flow analysis indicated the opposite. Seeing as though I am extremely new to order flow, I dismissed this analysis, and ended up forcing a trade on the AUD/USD going short when my indicators seemed to line up correctly. I learned from last time that I should not alter or close my trade purely based on emotion, and to just wait till the market hits my stop loss or take profit. I included a trailing stop loss of 60 pips this time, but I have no evidence to base that number range on. The trade is currently open and I am down about 30 pips.
Although I am not labeling this trade as a loser yet, I can definitely see a lot of holes in my trading strategy. The most obvious mistake in my eyes right now is my use of indicators. Currently all my trades are purely based on what my indicators say, and since I do not have any back-tested data to support the credibility of my indicators, it feels a lot like strategic gambling. Another issue is that I feel far too reliant on indicators alone. I think that if I can find ways to include various types of analysis efficiently and evenly in my trading plan I will become a much more skillful and well-rounded trader. In order to combat these two issues I will begin forming various types of trading strategies this weekend and back-test them all extensively. I also plan on researching more on price action, order flow, and Naked Forex.
Once again any and all feedback is welcome. I am just beginning Forex, but it had been a huge passion of mine and I don't plan on stopping anytime soon.
submitted by Aman-1127 to Forex [link] [comments]

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit: What you need to know to start Forex trading.

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit: What you need to know to start Forex trading.

FOREX Strategies

What are FOREX Strategies?
https://preview.redd.it/ihmphstzguv51.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=81f6b73c367d8695605514f8d32aaf3e2aeabc6e
You may have noticed that most of people confuse the terminology and refer to FOREX Strategies in the wrong way. There are methodologies, systems, strategies, and techniques. The most effective methodology is Price Language (Trend Tracking). Combined with a correct reading of mass psychology presented by the charts.
We know that in the Stock Markets there are thousands of strategies. FOREX, like the rest of the markets, presents you with the opportunity to apply similar strategies to win consistently. Taking advantage of repetitive psychological patterns.
First, the Price Language methodology has created great fortunes in FOREX, and the next fortune may be yours. But this methodology must be implemented within a framework of advanced concepts of Markets. Without forgetting the basics. And working hard day by day.
Second, a strategy is a set of parameters and techniques that together give you the advantage to act in any situation. Thus for example in war, generals have attack strategies and counterattack strategies.
FOREX strategies alike are entry strategies and exit strategies. All beginners should know these FOREX strategies for beginners. That way you will get a general idea of ​​the game and understand that trading is a war against the Market and its Specialists. Only applying FOREX strategies revealed by the same Specialists and using their own techniques,
... you can survive in this war.
Do not fall into the trap of the many "systems" and "methods" that are offered on the internet about operating in the FOREX Market. They just don't work in the long run. They are strategies based on indicators for the most part. Using rigid parameters. That if they can work and give profitability during a certain period of time, they will always reach a breaking point when the market changes its dynamics.
Instead, take advantage of your precious time and learn the Language of Price or Price Action.
The Language methodology will allow you to adapt to each new phase of the Market. If you combine this knowledge with the appropriate psychological concepts, you can live comfortably from speculation in FOREX.

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit - Basic FOREX Strategies

You have two basic FOREX strategies, one entry, and one exit. Both follow a general strategy that helps you capitalize on the collective behaviors of the Market. That is, of the total of participating speculators.
This behavior causes the formation of cycles that repeat over and over again. Driven by the basic emotions (uncertainty, greed, and panic) of the speculators involved that can be taken advantage of with the aforementioned FOREX strategies. Specialists identify these emotions in the order flow and capitalize on these events every hour, every day, and every month.
Basic FOREX Strategies - The Price Cycle
These repetitive cycles consist of 4 phases:
  1. Accumulation
  2. Upward trend
  3. Distribution
  4. Downward trend
https://preview.redd.it/6dvk2w0pduv51.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3ab65ca4eab6d20174b3327b862d8b59dcc13b7
The two trends can be easily identified by their notorious breakdown. And the two areas of uncertainty (accumulation and distribution), due to their notorious range trajectories.
This general behavior determines the core of our FOREX strategies.
You buy when the price of a pair has broken and has come out of one of its congestion formations (accumulation or distribution). You implement one of the Forex strategies, in this case, the entry one.
The multi-time technique will help you find the point of least risk when entering your initial buy or sell order. In the same way and using the same strategy but this time to close your position, the multiple timing technique will also show you how to close your operation obtaining the highest possible profit.
The most consistent way to extract profits in the market is by trading the start of trends within a cycle . Once confirmed by their respective breaks from the areas of uncertainty. This is the mother of all FOREX strategies . And in a market that operates 24 hours, we have more frequent cycles and therefore more opportunities.

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit - Advanced Forex Strategies

There are many advanced FOREX strategies that are generally used by professional speculators working for large financial firms.
Among these firms are banks, Investment Fund managers and Hedge Fund managers. The latter is an investment modality similar to Investment Funds, with the difference that Hedge Funds use more complex investment strategies. Its operations are more oriented to aggressive speculations in the short and medium-term.
Among the most common strategies is hedging (hedging), carry trade, automated systems based on quantum mathematics. And a large number of combinations between the different option strategies.

The Carry Trade

The central idea of ​​Carry Trade is to buy a pair in which the base currency has a considerably higher interest rate than the quoted currency. To earn the difference in rates regardless of whether the price of the pair rises or falls.
Suppose we buy a $ 100,000 lot of AUDJPY, which according to the rates on the chart would turn out to be the ideal instrument in this example to use the Forex carry trade strategy.
As our capital is in US dollars we have to assume for our example, the following quotes necessary to perform the place calculations:
AUD / JPY = 80.00 USD / JPY = 85.00
What happens internally in your broker is this.
  1. By placing as collateral $ 1,000 of your $ 50,000 of capital (assumed for this example), deposited in your account, you have access to $ 100,000 virtual (this is what is known as leverage); that is, you put in $ 1,000 and your broker lends you 99,000.
  2. With those $ 100,000 virtual dollars, your broker borrows on your behalf ¥ 8,500,000 Japanese yen (85 × 100,000) at 0.1% annual interest from a Japanese bank.
  3. With those ¥ 8,500,000 Japanese yen, your broker buys A $ 106,250 Australian dollars (8,500,000 / 80) and deposits it in an Australian bank where it receives 4.5% annual interest on your behalf.
  4. One year later (and regardless of the profit or loss generated by the pair's movement), your profit will be the difference between the AUD rate and the JPY rate, that is:
Profit = (AUD rate) - (JPY rate) - (costs of the 2 currency exchanges) Profit = (4.5%) - (0.1%) - (0.1% to 1%)
The great advantage of carry trade FOREX strategies is that this percentage profit is applied to the $ 100,000 of the standard lot; the broker transfers all of the profit to you, even if you only contributed $ 1,000. On the other hand, if you carry out the inverse of this operation, this benefit of the Forex carry trade becomes a cost (swap), and you assume it completely.
Remember that FOREX carry trade strategies are recommended for pairs with considerable interest rate differences, such as the one we have just seen in our example.
These FOREX strategies should also not be used in isolation. The idea is that through technical analysis you identify when would be the ideal time to enter the market using your carry trade Forex strategy and multiply your profits considerably.

What FOREX Strategies Do Hedge Funds Use?

The FOREX strategies used by large fund managers do not constitute an advantage in terms of percentage results for them, nor do they constitute a competitive disadvantage for you.
The vast majority of them fail because of their big egos. In fact, there was a firm made up of great financial geniuses, including 2 winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics, who developed a strategy based on quantum mathematical calculations.
With an initial base capital of about 3 billion dollars, and after 3 successful years obtaining annual returns of over 40%, the firm Long-Term Capital Management, begins its fourth year with losses. To counteract these losses the geniuses decide to multiply the initial capital several times, while the losses continued.
The year closed with the bankruptcy of the fund, and with a total accumulated loss of 1 trillion dollars, due to the great leverage used. And all for not admitting that the FOREX Strategies of Long Term Capital Management were not in line with the dynamics of the Market.
There are an overwhelming number of opportunities in the stock markets to make money interpreting the Language of Price.
You don't need to use complex "advanced" strategies that have been created to handle hundreds or billions of dollars.
The reasons for using these FOREX strategies are very different from what a "retail trader" pursues with his small speculation business.
As you can see, you should not worry about wanting to integrate any of these advanced strategies into your arsenal. They are only beneficial for managing hundreds or billions of dollars, where the return parameters are very different when you handle small amounts of capital.
Do not worry about collecting hundreds of free FOREX strategies that circulate on the internet, that great accumulation of mediocre information will only serve to confuse you and waste your valuable time.
Spend that time learning Price Action,
… And you will always be one step behind the Specialists, identifying each new Market condition, and anticipating the vast majority of reversals of all prices.
Ironically, the most successful fund managers indicate that their most profitable trades are those based on the basic trend-following strategies of the Price Language. The same ones that you will learn in this Free Course.
Dedicate yourself to perfecting them and believe me you won't need anything else. As long as you have good risk management, taking into consideration the following points ...

Styles of Investments in FOREX

The Investment FOREX long term is not recommended for small investors like you and me. If we take into account the term investing literally as large investors do who buy a financial product today to sell it years later.
We both have a better niche in the short and medium-term.
You may have noticed that the big multi-year trends in the Forex Market do exist. But minor swings within a big trend are usually very wide.
These minor movements allow us to easily double and triple the annual return of the big general trend, motivating most traders to speculate in the short and medium-term.
These minor oscillations or trends that occur within the large multi-year trends owe their occurrence mainly to two reasons.
First, the FOREX Market presents 3 sessions a day each in different cities of the world with different time zones (Asia, Europe, and America). This causes more frequent trend changes than in the rest of the stock markets.
Second, the purpose for which it was created also plays a role. The modern Foreign Exchange Market, since its inception in 1972, was conceived by the global financial system as a tool for speculation. To obtain benefits in the short and medium-term (from several days to 1 year).
These two points are basically the reasons why we observe the immense speed with which the FOREX market changes trends.
For example, for those who live in America, in the early morning (Europe) the EURUSD pair may be on the rise, in the morning or afternoon (America) it may be down, and then finally at night (Asia) it may return to the rise.

Define your Own Style for your FOREX Investments

One of the first decisions you will have to make is to choose your style as a trader or investor.
There are 4 types of well-defined styles.
Most professional traders tend to have multiple styles, although they always identify with one primary style for their FOREX investments. Study the characteristics of the 4 main styles to make your investments in FOREX :
1. Long Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per month to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 year to 5 years.
2. Medium Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per week to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 month to 1 year.
3. Short Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time, or who already has a certain time operating in the long and medium-term, showing constant profits, and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per day to your investments in FOREX. The period of an open position ranges from 1 day to 1 month.
4. Intraday : recommended only for people with a fairly solid earnings record in the short term, and with a capital greater than $ 50,000. As we have noted, this option constitutes a full-time job.
People who start investing in FOREX , should start executing short-term (weeks) and medium-term (months) transactions only, and not pay attention to intraday oscillations (day trading).
If you are interested in being an intraday speculator, I recommend that you first exhaust at least a year doing operations in the short and medium-term to assimilate the correct strategies and to develop the necessary mentality to carry out this work.
The second option would be to participate in some kind of intensive training.
I remind you that self-educating is almost impossible in speculation. You are likely to accumulate a lot of knowledge by reading books and attending courses. But you will probably never learn to make money with all the incomplete "systems" circulating on the internet.

Mistakes to Avoid When Looking for Your Style

Many people who are new to FOREX investments make the mistake of combining these styles, which is a key to failure.
I recommend that if you are not getting the results you expected by adopting one of these styles, do not try to change it. The problem sure is not in the style, but in your strategies or in your psychology.
A successful investor is able to make a profit in any longer trading time than he is used to. I explain. If you are already a profitable operator in the short term, it is very likely that you will also be profitable in the medium and long term,
… As long as you can interpret the Language of Price or Price Action.
In the opposite case, the same would not happen. If you were a medium-term trader, you would need time to adjust to the intraday. The reality is that long, medium and short term traders have very similar personalities. The intraday trader is completely different.

The Myth of the Intraday in Investments in FOREX

If you are already successful in the short, medium and long term, you will notice that the sacrifice and the hours necessary in front of the computer to operate intraday is much greater. The intraday style will be useful to increase your account if it is less than USD $ 100,000 in a very short time in exchange for 8 to 12 hours a day of hard work but ...
You must first develop the necessary skills to operate the intraday.
The ideal is to combine all the styles to get more out of the Market and carry out more effective transactions and have a diversification in your investments in FOREX.
There are intraday traders that are very successful, but the reality is that there are very few in the world that make a profit year after year. If you want to become an intraday, you just have to prepare yourself properly through intensive training.
Otherwise, I recommend that you don't even think about educating yourself to adopt the intraday style. It is not necessary to go against a probability of failure greater than 99%. Unless
... your ego is greater than your common sense.
The main reason why this style of investments in FOREX is not recommended for the vast majority of us "retail investors" (the official term "retail traders"), is the high operational cost.
The real commissions in this market range between $ 2.0 and $ 2.50 for each lot of 100,000 virtual units. This means that a complete operation (opening and closing) is approximately $ 5.00, for each standard lot traded ($ 100,000 virtual).
Another fundamental reason is the advent of robotic traders (HFT = High-Frequency Trading), which tend to manipulate the market in the shorter intraday swings. Please do not confuse HFTs with automated systems that we find daily on the internet, and that can be purchased for a few hundred dollars and often for free on FOREX forums / groups.
These HFTs to which I refer, they are effective. They cost millions of dollars and have been developed by the large Wall Street financial firms to manage their investments in FOREX.
The reality of the intraday trader is that you execute orders for large lots at the same time, to profit from the smallest movements in the market. It is an activity based on reflexes. The slightest oversight or distraction can turn into a catastrophe for your FOREX investments.
I recommend that you start investing in FOREX using slow time periods such as H4 or Daily. For some reason, all Goldman Sachs intraday FOREX investments are made with algorithms.

Finally…

To choose your style as a trader and manage your investments in FOREX, first determine what your degree of experience is, analyze the points mentioned below and the rest you will discover when you execute your first operations.
The points that will affect your decision are:
  • Capital
  • Time available each day
  • Level of Experience
  • Personality
Discovering your style is a search process. For some it will be a long way to find the right time frame that matches their personality. Don't be put off by the falls. After all, those who continue the path despite the falls are the ones who reach the destination.
And I hope you are one of those who get up over and over again. The next lesson will boost your confidence when you discover the main reason that moves currencies ...

Fundamental Analysis in Forex Trading Reddit

The fundamental analysis in Forex is used mostly by long-term investors. Players as we saw in the styles of operators, start a negotiation today, to close it years later.
I always emphasize the importance that the mass media give to this type of analysis to distract the great mass of participants.
It is all part of a great mass psychological manipulation. For centuries the ignorance of the masses has been organized before the great movements begin.
The important news are the macroeconomic reports published by the Central Banks and other government agencies destined for this work. All reports are made up. 99% of them are corrected months later.
These events are tools to justify fundamental analysis and price cleaning movements. Any silly headline does the job. With this, it is possible to absorb most of the existing liquidity, before the new trend phase is projected.

Reaction!

Except in rare situations, the result of an economic report of the fundamental analysis is generally already assimilated in the graph. In most cases, there are financial institutions that already have access to this information and are organizing and carrying out their operations in advance.
The phrase buy the rumor and sell the news is a very old adage on Wall Street. And its meaning contains what we have just explained. For the investor who can interpret the Language of Price, fundamental analysis is of little importance. Well, in general, their disclosure does not indicate that you have to take any action in your open trades , as long as your entry strategy provides you with a good support cushion.
This reality of fundamental analysis causes a lot of confusion for investors who lack in-depth knowledge of the forex market.

Macroeconomic Data

The data published in these events is irrelevant. Both for speculators and for the people in general. They are false. They lack reliability.
The price can go up or down with the same result of the data. The main ones are:
- Interest Rates - GDP (gross domestic product) - CPI (inflation) - ISM (manufacturing index) - NFP (payroll) - Double Deficits (deficit = fiscal + balance of payments)
If you are initiated, I recommend you avoid operating near these events. It is only a matter of having the time pending. Use the economic calendar for Fundamental Analysis of Forex Factory.
There is a probabilistic advantage in operating these fundamental analysis events. But it takes preparation, experience, and practice. They represent a way of diversifying in the general operation of a speculator.

The Uncertainty of Fundamental Analysis

On many occasions after the disclosure of an economic report, the price movement of the currency pair that is going to be affected tends to move in the opposite direction to the logic of the report.
I show you an example of a fundamental analysis report. Imagine that the EUR / USD pair is trading at 1.2500, and the FED (US Federal Reserve) issues a statement announcing that it has just raised inter-bank interest rates from 0.25 points to 0.75 points. Very positive news for the US dollar that logically implies an appreciation of the currency and consequently an instantaneous collapse of the EUR / USD pair (up the dollar and down the euro)
However, minutes after the release of said fundamental analysis report, the pair after effectively collapsing to 1.2400, returns and returns to its levels prior to the report (1.2500). This situation is very common , but it is not so easy to identify it when it is occurring, but after the damage is done.
Traps like these devour the accounts of beginners who approach the market with little experience, with weak strategies, and especially with very little experience.
That is why I reiterate that you forget the fundamental analysis for now. Just keep in mind when operating, that there is no publication scheduled nearby. Just check the economic calendar for the day and forget about the numbers. Let the economists mess around with the data.

FOREX Market Correlation

The Forex market correlation exists between pairs with similar "base" currencies and not always under the same circumstances. The correlation in the Forex market that is most followed and that has the greatest impact on fundamental analysis is that of the US dollar (USD).
The USD is the most traded monetary unit with a volume greater than 80% with respect to the rest of the currencies. This fact determines why their correlation is the most important, the most followed, and perhaps the only one worth following in the fundamental macro analysis.
The 7 major pairs are usually in sync . These 7 pairs all include the USD and present a fundamental analysis correlation almost 75% of the time. Influencing the rest of the currency pairs.

Advantages of the FOREX Market Correlation

In the fundamental analysis the most basic FOREX correlation is the following. When the USD appreciates, the USD / CAD, USD / CHF, and USD / JPY pairs tend to go up in price. This indicates that the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Swiss franc (CHF), and the Japanese yen (JPY) are losing value against the USD.
We must bear in mind that this correlation does not occur 100% of the time. In fact, the JPY generally tends to move in the opposite direction , since in recent decades this currency has been used as a source of financing to invest in other financial instruments.
On the other side is the FOREX market correlation that generates a movement almost in unison in the other 4 major pairs EUR / USD, GBP / USD, AUD / USD, and NZD / USD. These tend to fall in price, homologous the appreciation of the USD. But not always.
In this case the fundamental analysis correlation works most of the time, between 65 and 85% of the time. Small differences are noted in the extent that each of these pairs experiences.
There is also a correlation in the secondary FOREX market, where the pairs of all currencies that do not include the USD participate, but I recommend you not to waste time on them for now. There are more important things about the Language of Price to know first.

FOREX Commodity Correlation

In this part I will explain to you in a basic way the Correlation Commodities - FOREX of the fundamental analysis.
There are three currencies that have a direct correlation with commodities. They are usually called: "COMDOLLS" which is short for "Commodities Dollars" (Commodities Dollars), since all three obey the dollar denomination. These are:
- The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) - The Australian Dollar (AUD) - The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
These three currencies make up the group of the 8 largest together with the euro, the pound, the yen, the franc and the US dollar. Together, they merge to produce the major pairs traded in the FOREX Foreign Exchange Market.
The FOREX Commodity Correlation has an affinity in most cases greater than 75%. And each of them has its different raw material of correlation. You will notice that the NZD and the AUD are two currencies that act practically in unison. Both present minimal discrepancies in their fluctuations in the short, medium and long term.
This is mainly because their economies are very similar and their economic and fiscal policies are too. Their main production items also show great similarities, despite the fact that the Australian economy is much larger than the New Zealand economy.
The raw materials that follow the movement of the AUD are mainly gold and copper. If you put the history of these three quotes during the last decade of the year 2,000 together on the same chart, you will notice a very similar upward movement between the three quotes. Pure correlation of fundamental analysis.
This strong correlation with commodities in the metals area for the AUD has provided Australia with an economic advantage enviable over the other major powers that have seen their currencies devalue sharply against the AUD. At the same time, they experience a constant decrease in the purchasing power of their citizens.
The NZD maintains a correlation with raw materials related to agriculture and livestock, mainly including milk and its derivatives. It is one of the countries that dominates the world export of these economic items, and also has important exports of metals , although in smaller quantities than Australia.
Finally, you have a correlation with raw materials in the energy area. For historical reasons the CAD, which is not the largest oil producer in the world, but an important supplier to the largest consumer that is the US, has seen its currency oscillate in line with oil prices.
To make long-term investments in the Foreign Exchange Market, it is necessary to take into consideration at least one Commodity Correlation - FOREX in your fundamental analysis.

Forex Technical Analysis Reddit

The technical analysis is the methodology that interprets the movements of the price. Specialists look for liquidity to fund their business. The repetition of the strategies used by the specialists in their work generate repetitive patterns.
If you were an analyst, you would develop the visual ability to identify such patterns on a graph. If you were a programmer you would quantify them mathematically using complex formulas.
And if you could learn to interpret the Language of Price, you would have the ability to anticipate 90% of all movements that occur on a chart. And in this business, anticipating is what will make you money.
Market prices are reflected and framed on a horizontal time axis and a vertical price axis. Prices go up or down according to the aggressiveness of the participating operators. In an efficient or balanced market these oscillations should be imperceptible.
But in reality this is not the case, since the Market works thanks to the digital printing of hundreds of billions of units of paper money systematically distributed by the Central Banks through the banking system. These resources serve as a tool to manipulate 100% of the movements that occur in the FOREX Market.
Are you looking for Technical Indicators? All technical indicators were created from the 70's. How do you think that for more than 200 years the speculators of the past accumulated great wealth?
With the Language of Price. The best timing is given by the price itself. Indicator-generated entry signals usually occur at the wrong time.
The basis of technical analysis is human psychology. Unfortunately, human beings are not perfect and are loaded with emotions that dominate their behavior in similar situations, creating repetitive and highly predictable behavior when it occurs in masses.
The study of technical analysis through indicators and subjective training, originates and shapes the collective thinking on which all the traps that specialists execute every day to maintain their business are designed. If the majority won, the Market would cease to exist.
Although you already know that the patterns are not generated by the masses , but the repetitive behavior of the Specialists in the face of the action response of the masses. It is very easy for speculaists, because they can see everyone's orders in their books.
And they also exert a great influence on the decisions of the masses through the mass media. It is what I call the war between the Egg and the Stone , if you hit me you win and if I hit you also you win.

The Deception of Modern Technical Analysis

Through the centuries thousands of people have been able to extract great benefits from the financial markets by applying the basic strategies of technical analysis and the psychology of the Price Language.
More than 200 years ago when the markets began to operate officially, fundamental analysis predominated, which was only used by large financial institutions. As this analysis tool began to become popular, these institutions began to apply the strategies of technical analysis.
In recent decades and with the massification of internet technology, technical analysis has begun to be handled by anyone who has a computer with internet access. The same financial institutions, which have been present for more than a century and as a result of this overcrowding , establish a strategy to confuse and misinform about the true strategies of technical analysis.
This has been accomplished in the following manner. Currently there are hundreds, if not thousands of technical indicators that have been developed by so-called "gurus" of technical analysis and that sell their magic indicators packed in a "system" or "method" that usually cost thousands of dollars, or simply with the publication of a book with which they generate large profits. Double benefit.
The aim is to confuse the initiates in speculation and create the collective mentality that will originate the same behaviors over and over again. About 95% of these new entrants completely lose all the capital they invest in their early stages as investors.
Leaving them with a negative experience and creating the idea and the image that financial markets are an exclusive area for geniuses with high academic levels and that only they can produce returns in the markets year after year.
The initiate, having lost all his original capital, turns to these “gurus” for help and teachings. You spend more capital on the products they offer you and the cycle repeats itself . Obviously, the vast majority do not relapse and completely forget to re-engage in the stock markets.
I hope you have not been a victim of this drama.
Now I will show you the simplicity of a FOREX technical analysis , without the need to resort to any indicator as a tool to determine an effective entry or exit strategy when planning your operations.

The Price Cycle

Previously you studied in the FOREX strategies lesson, that the typical price cycle when it is reflected in a graph, presents four very specific phases and very easy to identify if you perform a technical analysis with common sense . These are:
  • Accumulation
  • Bullish trend
  • Distribution
  • Bearish trend
Remember also that the most effective way to constantly extract profits in the markets is by taking advantage of phases 2 and 4 (the trends). Combined with a correct reading of the collective behavior of the masses of speculators interpreting the Language of Price.
You will be surprised by the simplicity with which thousands of people around the world and over the centuries have accumulated large sums of money by drawing a few simple lines and applying responsible risk management with their capital.

How to Identify Trends?

Being able to determine the trend phases within the price cycle is the essence of technical analysis since it is these two phases that provide you with the probabilistic advantage you need to operate in the markets and obtain constant returns.
In the most plain and simple language, in the world of technical analysis, there are only two types of formations: trends and ranges.
The trends, in turn, can be bullish if they go up, or bearish if they go down. The ranges, on the other hand, can be accumulation if they are at the beginning of the cycle, or distribution if they are in the high part of the cycle. As I had indicated in the topic of FOREX strategies when describing the price cycle.
This sounds more like a play on words, but I will show you the practical definition to simplify your life and then you will apply these definitions on the graph so that everything makes more sense to you.
  • Bullish trend: a succession of major highs and major lows
  • Bearish trend: a succession of minor highs and minor lows
  • Floor Range: equal highs and varied lows
  • Ceiling Range: equal minimums and varied maximums
https://preview.redd.it/vvmsshf0guv51.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=c321679a7dcc03f7184778be86379ef442fddf91
Some key points from the graph:
  • The start of this big uptrend was detected when the last high (thick green line) of the previous downtrend was broken to the upside, ending the succession of lower highs, while exiting the lateral floor formation.
  • The succession of major lows in the uptrend (thin blue lines)
  • The succession of major highs in the uptrend (thin green lines)
  • The end of the uptrend was detected when the last low (thick blue line) of the uptrend was broken to the downside, ending the succession of higher lows, while exiting the lateral ceiling formation.
A tool that will help you sharpen your technical eye and identify trends on the chart is the Currency Scanner. This application is very effective and will provide you with a much-needed boost in your operations to identify reliable trends. At first, we are not sure how reliable a trend is. You will receive great help to find opportunities with the Currency Scanner .

The Common Sense, The Less Common of Senses

The central idea of ​​technical analysis consists in determining the price situation of a market, that is, in which phase of the pattern of its cycle it is currently conjugated with the collective thinking of the masses and the possible traps that the market would have prepared to remove. the capital at stake by the public.
To carry out a precise technical analysis, you will use the support and resistance lines, which can be static (horizontal) or dynamic (projecting an angle with respect to the horizontal axis).
Your common sense prevails here.
If you show a 10-year-old a chart, they will be able to tell you if the price is going up or down. You will most likely have no idea how to draw the lines, but you will be able to establish the general trend. Simply using your common sense.
By introducing indicators and other gadgets , the simplicity and effectiveness of the technical analysis created by your common sense evaporates.
The following graph conceptually shows you all the possible situations in which you could draw these lines to carry out your technical analysis of the place. You can clearly observe a downtrend delimited by its dynamic trend line and an uptrend on the right side with its respective dynamic delimitation.
https://preview.redd.it/5iehg0r6guv51.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=84c265a5d35da7ea970792c4bf40fe20b33bd8bd

Forex Charts Analysis

I want to remind you that the formations or patterns that develop on the charts (triangles, wedges, pennants, boxes, etc.) only work to execute trades that have initially been confirmed by the static support and resistance lines and to read the collective thinking of the masses.
Chart formations work, but you must know the Language of Price to determine when the Specialists will exploit a chartist figure, or when they will allow it to run. In fact, you will learn with the Language that you can operate a chart figure in any direction.
Much of the "mentalization" that the masses receive is to believe that the figures are made to be respected. Which is an inefficient way of working. Simply because you could wait days or months for a perfect chart figure to occur in order to perform a reliable trade. When in fact there are dozens every day.

Japanese Candles

Of all the tools you have to carry out technical analysis, perhaps the best known and most popular is the Japanese technique of candles (candlesticks).
Candles are mainly used to identify reversal points on the chart without resorting to confirmation of horizontal trend lines and only using a previous bar or candle breaks.
Its correct use is subject to a multi-time analysis (multiple temporalities) and a general evaluation of the context proposed by the market in general at the time of each scenario.
Later I will show you all the important details to take into account so that you use Japanese candles in a simple and very effective way.
Do not forget ... Trading in your beginnings based on formations (chartism) and candlestick patterns conjugated with hundreds of tools and technical indicators, constitutes the perfect path to your failure. Before using any strategy or technique I recommend you focus on learning the Price Language, which includes 3 basic things:
  • The Price: structure and dynamics
  • Market sentiment: relative strength, external shocks, etc.
  • Psychology: flexible mindset and risk acceptance
After you acquire this solid foundation, I guarantee that you will be able to trade any trading system that exists, any strategy, technique or chart figure in a profitable and consistent manner.
Specialists make money every day at the expense of the collective behavior caused by the use of these strategies and techniques. With which you will only manage to lose your capital and your time by putting the cart in front of the horse.
People who do the opposite, at best become,
... Philosophers of Speculation, or indocile Robot Assistants or Expert Advisors.
To make money in any market condition, range or trend, you must use the technical analysis based on the Price Language and combine it with a correct psychological reading of the price. This knowledge can only be acquired through proper education and lots of supervised practice. Like any other career in life.
I hope you've found this guide helpful!
submitted by kayakero to makemoneyforexreddit [link] [comments]

H1 Backtest of ParallaxFX's BBStoch system

Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are.
TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details.
This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.

Background

For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX!
I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose.
This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem.
I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.

System Details

I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:

And now for the fun. Results!

As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker.
EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.

A Note on Spread

As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits.
Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way).
However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades.
You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term.
Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.

Time of Day

Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either.
On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate.
That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.

Moving stops up to breakeven

This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers.
Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability.
One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)?
Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right?
Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert.
I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall.
The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.

2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops

Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it.
Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL.
Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.

Correlated Trades

As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular.
Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system.
This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here).
Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses.
Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels).
Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant.
One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak.
EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much.
I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system.
This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions.
There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated.
I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful.
Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.

What I will trade

Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!

Other Technical Details

Raw Data

Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.)
I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.

Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes

For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:

Pairs

  1. AUD/CAD
  2. AUD/CHF
  3. AUD/JPY
  4. AUD/NZD
  5. AUD/USD
  6. CAD/CHF
  7. CAD/JPY
  8. CHF/JPY
  9. EUAUD
  10. EUCAD
  11. EUCHF
  12. EUGBP
  13. EUJPY
  14. EUNZD
  15. EUUSD
  16. GBP/AUD
  17. GBP/CAD
  18. GBP/CHF
  19. GBP/JPY
  20. GBP/NZD
  21. GBP/USD
  22. NZD/CAD
  23. NZD/CHF
  24. NZD/JPY
  25. NZD/USD
  26. USD/CAD
  27. USD/CHF
  28. USD/JPY

TL;DR

Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:

Demo Trading Results

Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc).
A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade.
I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!

Live Trading Results

I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.
submitted by ForexBorex to Forex [link] [comments]

Odd race to bottom for NZD, JPY and USD

Saxo Bank

submitted by Altruistic_Camel to econmonitor [link] [comments]

TODAY’S JPY STRENGTH AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS

TODAY’S JPY STRENGTH AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS
Today in the main session forex trading the JPY was strong on all pairs in this currency group. This drove strong price movements during the main trading session. Images of the live forex trading signals from The Forex Heatmap® and price chart movement for these pairs is shown below. Pairs like the USD/JPY and CAD/JPY sold off on the smaller time frames. The movement cycles were strong, but there was no support from the larger time frame trends. So these look like short term sells or day trades. These live currency trading signals and trend based trading plans for 28 pairs can be found on our website at Forexearlywarning.com.

Forex Heatmap



https://preview.redd.it/gyvha13y1uj51.jpg?width=365&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e666e2f6c866b07131304138feaf8bdbee0289d6
https://preview.redd.it/r6fgif3y1uj51.jpg?width=479&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=591dd49e9713d0416b593e6be2131423bbf594f3
submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]

TODAY’S JPY WEAKNESS AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS

TODAY’S JPY WEAKNESS AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS
Today in the main session forex trading the JPY was weak on all pairs in this currency group. This drove strong price movements during the main trading session. Images of the live forex trading signals from The Forex Heatmap® and price chart movement for these pairs is shown below. The CAD/JPY moved up on the H4 time frame. It is hitting some resistance now, but could continue to the 81.00 area or higher if the D1 trend improves. These live currency trading signals and trend based trading plans for 28 pairs can be found on our website at Forexearlywarning.com. Click on the Link Below:

Forex Heatmap


https://preview.redd.it/9xisf5bldgg51.jpg?width=411&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f7a69321dea267e3833de29030ec2ecbc41143a2
https://preview.redd.it/4whifbbldgg51.jpg?width=648&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eb71c2df1d1fa1d46f9f39366c69f436213c3470
submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]

TODAY’S CHF WEAKNESS AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS

TODAY’S CHF WEAKNESS AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS
Today in the main session forex trading the CHF was weak on all pairs in this currency group. This drove strong price movements during the main trading session. Images of the live forex trading signals from The Forex Heatmap® and price chart movement for these pairs is shown below. The CHF/JPY sold off on the H1 time frame. Since this pair does not have support on the larger time frames, we would scale out lots or exit any sells. The CAD/CHF also moved up, this pair is ranging and not trending, so once again scale out lots or exit any buys. Movement was good today but the larger trends are not in place on these pairs. These live currency trading signals and trend based trading plans for 28 pairs can be found on our website at Forexearlywarning.com.
Forex Heatmap


https://preview.redd.it/6bl2paqmt2b51.jpg?width=486&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eb2af5011678317351ec1e7cc763fbd0ce523718
https://preview.redd.it/ng1nplqmt2b51.jpg?width=357&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=91ef8b310d6e2ad1d2dec90bd08f8c2a15fdaf6c
submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]

Explanation of the charts I posted earlier

I'll try to explain. The context is the concept of purchasing power parity: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/fliz8m/purchasing_power_parity_ppp_in_fx/
The concept is that the numbers themselves can tell you a lot, for example, the rate of a pair, say AUD/CAD specifically state what the AUDJPY and CADJPY should be. The AUDCAD is 0.83183 which means 1 CAD is equal to 1.20216 AUD. So however many JPY you can get for a AUD you should be able to get 1.20216 times more JPY for a CAD.
AUDJPY = 64.201
64.201 x 1.20216 = CADJPY = 77.17987
DISEQUILLIBRIUM:
But the actual market price is CADJPY=76.974. Which means there is a disequilibrium between what the actual rate is. It can be quantified as the difference, -0.20587. I've taken that concept and expanded it to all currencies in a pretty large spreadsheet. The aggregate disequilibrium is accounted for each pair.
CURRENCY WEIGHT:
For this example, both the AUD is putting -0.20587 "weight" on the CADJPY and the CAD is putting -0.20587 "wieght" on the AUDJPY. This is collected for each individual currency and added together to represent the weight.
INDEX STRENGTH:
For example:
EUGBP 0.91447
USD/GBP 0.86211
CHF/GBP 0.87428
CAD/GBP 0.60099
AUD/GBP 0.50116
NZD/GBP 0.50600
JPY/GBP 0.007776594
ZAGBP 0.0484013
NOKGBP 0.0717705
HKD/GBP 0.110299
CNH/GBP 0.119747
SGD/GBP 0.588505
TRY/GBP 0.129911
SEK/GBP 0.0821385
DKK/GBP 0.12234
PLN/GBP 0.200372
MXN/GBP 0.0348339
RUB/GBP 0.0106524
Which averages out to 12.20271181 for the GBP. When this is done for each currency and added together which comes to 80.2174589.
GBP 12.20271181 15.21%
EUR 10.70881522 13.35%
USD 10.43321516 13.01%
CHF 9.209341569 11.48%
CAD 7.268234336 9.06%
SGD 7.16468796 8.93%
AUD 6.058258744 7.55%
NZD 6.065011193 7.56%
PLN 2.411473714 3.01%
TRY 1.541615401 1.92%
DKK 1.441292277 1.80%
CNH 1.411273128 1.76%
HKD 1.290361376 1.61%
SEK 0.952565391 1.19%
NOK 0.839225708 1.05%
ZAR 0.54313985 0.68%
MXN 0.507674255 0.63%
JPY 0.094083269 0.12%
RUB 0.074478539 0.09%
I've found that charting isn't needed to understand what prices should be now. They help in understanding what motivates people to have money exposed. Charts are in the psychological part of trading.
Edit: The JPY pairs are calculated times 0.01, that's why it's index is greater than RUB. I guess I can't post the charts anymore.
submitted by butstillkeepitreal to Forex [link] [comments]

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submitted by GiuliettaShop to Popify [link] [comments]

CMC Markets: is everything in CFDs? If so, how do the forward date ones work?

I just started a demo account with CMC Markets, and I was wondering if every single asset listed is traded as a CFD? When learning about forex from BabyPips I had the mentality as if I'm literally trading the currency; as in if it were in person, I'd be giving some coins in one currency and receiving another. I guess since CFDs are linear derivatives it doesn't matter as much, but I still feel like there are some additional considerations when trading CFDs vs "actual currency"? Also, what are the maturities on these? Are there even maturities? All the quotes just say "USD/CAD", "EUJPY" etc, but from my understanding of a CFD, you agree to pay the difference from actual and agreed, much like a future, so why are there no maturities?

Question 2: For CFDs on things like equity indices, they seem to trade the whole day unlike their underlying. Does this mean say at 9pm EST the S&P500 CFD is just people essentially betting on tomorrow's open? And again with the futures thing, does after-market hours trading in these CFDs affect the real opening price the next day? (If markets are efficient and we assume there are people watching CFD prices like future prices, and then tomorrow's early trades become based on what the futures markets seem to say about the S&P, holding news and other things constant).

Question 3: For CFDs with maturity dates like commodities on this platform, how does that work? Again, I'm mostly confused at how CFDs operate without maturities and how they different from futures. On the CMC markets platform, many agricultural commodities come with the suffixes like either "cash" or a maturity date, but currencies and equity indices do not. What does this mean? Those commodities I'm clicking trade on...am I trading a corn CFD? Or a CFD on corn futures? What exactly is the underlying mechanic?
Question 4: yet another example. For the bond indices...what am I looking at on the platform? I just want to get a chart of US treasury yields but I don't think that is available on CMC. What am I looking at when I click UK Gilt Cash or US T-Bond Cash or US T-Bond Jun 2020?

Tl;dr Don't understand the mechanics of CFDs and thus I'm not sure what EXACTLY I'm actually trading when I trade things like currency, equity indices, commodities. Surely I'm not actually trading a physical commodity or actual shares. Please note this is specific to CMC markets.
Thanks :)
submitted by fittyfive9 to Forex [link] [comments]

TODAY’S JPY STRENGTH AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS

TODAY’S JPY STRENGTH AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS
Today in the main session forex trading the JPY was strong on all pairs in this currency group. This drove strong price movements during the main trading session. Images of the live forex trading signals from The Forex Heatmap® and price chart movement for these pairs is shown below. The GBP/JPY dropped into the D1 time frame downtrend, this pair has a lot more potential to drop with no nearby support levels. The CAD/JPY also dropped. This pair has some support levels remaining, and the trend is not as clear. We would scale out lots on any sells on the CAD/JPY. These live currency trading signals and trend based trading plans for 28 pairs can be found on our website at Forexearlywarning.com.
https://www.forexearlywarning.com/the-forex-heatmap

https://preview.redd.it/p3nbn69s57x41.jpg?width=444&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=73b852662a020b7d625e6932d0b862a8fec16ac5
https://preview.redd.it/t3vjz59s57x41.jpg?width=540&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5ec6a1e1f8c1406bed5e4173c1704cb476ea120d
#GBPJPY #CADJPY #forexsignals #forextrading #trading #daytrading #forexalerts #currencytrading #forex Japanese Yen GBP/JPY CAD/JPY
submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]

TODAY’S JPY STRENGTH AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS

TODAY’S JPY STRENGTH AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS
Today in the main session forex trading the JPY was strong on all pairs in this currency group. This drove strong price movements during the main trading session. Images of the live forex trading signals from The Forex Heatmap® and price chart movement for these pairs is shown below. The CAD/JPY and GBP/JPY sold off on the H1/H4 time frames, these look like short term sells. Scale out lots or exit the GBP/JPY as it is at H4 support levels now. On the CAD/JPY scale out lots or exit as it drops to the 83.00 support level and below. These live currency trading signals and trend based trading plans for 28 pairs can be found on our website at Forexearlywarning.com.
https://www.forexearlywarning.com/the-forex-heatmap

https://preview.redd.it/oi31v28efyi41.jpg?width=443&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d479447a7d9e68877cdc3282a1023d4a04b3e5b4
https://preview.redd.it/p9zxdq7efyi41.jpg?width=495&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d31b866ca78dfa59a2c4d71cdbe93d3592506077
#CADJPY #GBPJPY #forexsignals #forextrading #trading #daytrading #forexalerts #currencytrading #forex Japanese Yen CAD/JPY GBP/JPY
submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]

TODAY’S CAD STRENGTH AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS

TODAY’S CAD STRENGTH AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS
Today in the main session forex trading the CAD was strong on all pairs in this currency group. This drove strong price movements during the main trading session. Images of the live forex trading signals from The Forex Heatmap® and price chart movement for these pairs is shown below. The EUCAD dropped on the H1/H4 time frames. This pair is at several support levels, so we would scale out lots or exit any sells. The CAD/JPY also moved up. This pair is in a strong uptrend, so it could move higher. But this pair is at some strong resistance now on the W1 time frame. These live currency trading signals and trend based trading plans for 28 pairs can be found on our website at Forexearlywarning.com.
https://www.forexearlywarning.com/the-forex-heatmap


https://preview.redd.it/a4dre2rplg541.jpg?width=666&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3fe036f44c95228b59b8400d710350a8d1e67c09
https://preview.redd.it/4phn01rplg541.jpg?width=456&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7a526138306ed279bcb67dd8b1e20afc47d2a1fe
#EURCAD #CADJPY #forexsignals #forextrading #trading #daytrading #forexalerts #currencytrading #forex Canadian Dollar EUCAD CAD/JPY
submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]

CAD/JPY - Stong/Weak

CAD/JPY - Stong/Weak
With a combination of oil strongly selling off, dragging down oil producing countries currencies, along with the stock markets sliding giving increased buying pressure to the safe haven currencies, it seems like CAD/JPY short offers an ideal strong/weak trade combination.
https://preview.redd.it/eso9j8puw8521.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=78ce1c58dff3842bacc9ad5cb08385081de1e1ad
Edit - Day chart day after posting analysis.
https://preview.redd.it/24cxpywglg521.png?width=1365&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ec6de07edfd2bbf0a9389ca1d3ccaf86dd30eb9

Technical analysis also supports this, with CAD/JPY wicking into support a few days ago but having rebroke that low in the fall over the last 24 hours.
This looks like a really good time to follow a simple "sell bounces" strategy on CAD/JPY.
I will be looking for initial entries at 83.70 - 83.75. Stops just behind 84. 83.20 minimum target area, but probably see how far it can run trailing stops.

Edit: Initial trade filled sell/profit level. Updated analysis here https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/a7mz00/cadjpy_stongweak/ec48q56/

edit: well, no-one else seems to agree, but none-the-less, selling bounces is like shooting fish in a barrel. https://imgur.com/a/K5F5EEO

edit3: Okay, we turned right in the reversal zone of 83.70, we are now under 82.70 - 100 pips, couple nice RR trades. Winding it down now, only a few little position left in the market. https://imgur.com/a/0diVVb0

edit3: Filled profit cluster. I'm out. My other positions in the market now are nominal. Wrapping it up now. https://imgur.com/a/8W27LaX

Final edit: All out. 1:5 RR hit for my last trades. https://imgur.com/a/AtMfnun
That is probably me for the year, unless something else really obvious comes up.

Cheeky little scalp long, this is uber oversold now and due a snap back. https://imgur.com/a/ukI23lm
Market as still weak lol. I got stopped out a bit of this, hit targets on a bit. Entered retest of close to lows targeting my initial entry area - this will give me a net profitable position if we retest there and I can free-roll for a larger profit if the market puts in bigger correction. https://imgur.com/a/KLtDSxx
submitted by inweedwetrust to Forex [link] [comments]

Transitioning to forex from crypto: what fundamentals should I worry about? Any other suggestions?

Hello,
Crypto can be quiet as hell sometimes and it's like squeezing blood from a stone with tiny moves. So, I've been doing Oanda demo using my pro Tradingview account. Only EUUSD so far but thinking of adding JPY, GBP, and CAD to my pairs since they're often recommended to beginners.
Question- how much should I pay attention to FA? Do you guys typically open any currency/forex websites for news before trading, or do you trade blind? In crypto, I open up a chart, mark my levels, look for divergences, and am in a trade within minutes. Not sure if that's possible with forex though.
Do you avoid trading at any times?
Do you guys have any suggestions here, or on any other suggestions transitioning from crypto? It's been fine so far. Starting with $250 account to see how far I can build up while trading crypto for my income.
Thanks.
submitted by CentreLeftRight to Forex [link] [comments]

Testing snap strategy

I will attempt to test a strategy as defined by the creator of this sub for accountability purposes

link to strategy:
https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/93jzcz/strategy_for_testing/?utm_source=reddit-android

looking for snaps from over bought/sold tending moves, using fib levels from swing of last reversal and price action to confirm entry

3 main rules
1 price must respect 1.27, 1.6, 2.2 fibs
2 has to trade undeabove 2.61 and then have a full bar close undeabove 2.61
3 if conditions are met buy/sell on retest of 2.61 and tp at 2.2

So far not noticing many of these patterns occur on live charts, went back and tested a few out in hindsight

https://preview.redd.it/hp97gqceed821.jpg?width=2367&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4bffc417366ee24666e7eb0cabd8892367970e11
Found this pattern occur in October on usd/jpy up trending move and fib drawn on last upswing. meets all criteria and r:r is about 1:5 retest of 2.61 comes in fairly late

https://preview.redd.it/vyibv2l0fd821.jpg?width=2382&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=643ae524b516ea4b02a0634122af7029b90408d9
another hindsight example from cad/jpy also meets all criteria except r:r is just above 1:1 wouldn't have actually taken this trade unless stop loss would be placed higher

https://preview.redd.it/j6gq2xwdfd821.jpg?width=2250&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cc8bc476f18c9f4d78517c025ade2e3903ae892b
This is a current formation on nzd/usd meets all criteria although if stop loss placed below the wick of the flash crash would only be 1:1 r:r would probably ignore the wick and place sl at the bottom of the bodies of the following candles making it a lot more favorable. Waiting for retest of 2.61 to place order
submitted by misnd3rstood to Forexnoobs [link] [comments]

TODAY’S CAD WEAKNESS AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS

TODAY’S CAD WEAKNESS AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS
The live forex trading signals from The Forex Heatmap ® and today’s price chart movement are shown in the attached images. These live trading signals for 28 pairs are available on this web page:
https://www.forexearlywarning.com/the-forex-heatmap

https://preview.redd.it/wlw3lzyke0031.jpg?width=607&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ecd0ecee9b93469fed30f27c06e11622f2a2dfe3
https://preview.redd.it/mcranzyke0031.jpg?width=434&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3f7b6ed1dd0522fa0ea8c04b0aa7759245786845
Follow the trends of the forex market at Forexearlywarning.com.
#CADJPY #NZDCAD #forexsignals #forextrading #trading #daytrading #forexalerts #currencytrading #forex Canadian Dollar CAD/JPY NZD/CAD
submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]

PSA: On an intraday basis, the Japanese Yen is highly correlated with the stock market (Chart)

chart: https://imgur.com/a/vZznK
Here's an intraday chart of the CAD/JPY with the NASDAQ100 superimposed (blue line).
It's kind of a "chicken or the egg" situation where it's difficult to identify the catalyst, but the correlation is the point I'm getting across.
With that being said, lots of Forex platforms provide the ability to apply leverage when you trade. So, day trading with 40:1 leverage on the CADJPY is much more attractive than day trading SPY or QQQ with no leverage.
submitted by Sr_Covfefe to stocks [link] [comments]

Pillars of Forex Trading

Pillars of Forex Trading
Pillars of Forex Trading
Forex trading is the act of speculating on the foreign exchange market, with the intention to make more money profitably. Forex trading in otherwise said as FX trading, foreign exchange trading or currency trading. Let’s see the pillars of forex trading here. The pillars are listed down as,
  1. TRADE ENTRY STRATEGY
  2. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
  3. SENTIMENT ANALYSIS
  4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
  5. RISK MANAGEMENT
  6. MONEY MANAGEMENT
  7. TRADE EXIT STRATEGY

TRADE ENTRY STRATEGY
The foremost thing to talk about trading strategies is, you need to know the simple methods. Many traders do not even realize what their strategy is or cannot easily define it, because they are trying to bring a bunch of different messy ways together best forex broker in uae. This will put the trader in trouble and trader will find difficulty in making money. So having a plan for the entry would help to succeed.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Fundamental analysis is a process of evaluating security to assess its intrinsic value, by analyzing economic, financial, and qualitative and quantitative factors. Understanding why the currency is moving and what makes it move is called fundamental analysis. The currency market is different from the stock market in fundamental analysis. Even though the currency market and stock market involved in the analysis and understanding of the intrinsic value, the approach, and methodology in calculating and concluding the intrinsic value varies.
SENTIMENT ANALYSIS
Sentiment analysis denotes the risk appetite that occurs in the financial market. Traders are more keen on taking a risk which leads them to have higher returns which carry great risk. But without any risk traders cannot see any high returns forex trading uae legal. In Forex, Sentiment analysis plays a specific role among all the other pillars. It clearly makes us understand which currency is in demand and thus understands the flow of capital from one currency to another. Here are 4 common indicators that examine the sentiment risk in the market.
  1. Equities market (stock market)
  2. The commitment of Traders report
  3. Volatility index
  4. Bonds spread
When the market environment is risk-on, high yield currencies, AUD, NZD, and CAD gets strengthen, whereas JPY becomes weak. On the contrary, when the market environment is risk-off, JPY is strengthening, while AUD, NZD, and CAD become weak.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical analysis stands as a third pillar. It is frequently discussed in forex trading. Technical analysts believe that analyzing the movement of prices is more significant to make trading with top forex brokers in uae. Once a trend has aroused, future price movement is likely to follow the direction of the trend than going in the opposite direction. The chart patterns are based on the notion that history tends to repeat itself, and technical traders leverage on this information to trade the market.
RISK MANAGEMENT
Risk management expresses more than just deciding your trading. It includes how you manage your risk exposure, dealing with the market, protecting your capital, and how you manage your profit potential based on your risk profile. In Risk Management, control of your downside so that the upside will be at no risk. Risk management differs from individual to individual. Focusing on different key components of risk management would help. In short, risk management teaches us, how to make the potential of your capital to blot without losing the market.
MONEY MANAGEMENT
Money management is the process of saving, investing, spending, and overseeing the capital usage of an individual or group. In two ways money management can be practiced to succeed. A trader can take many frequent small stops and try to get profits from the few large winning trades, a trader can choose to go for many small gains and take infrequent large stops. Each and every trader in this universe must follow some money management skills to succeed
TRADE EXIT STRATEGY
Having an exit plan before entering is important. Traders spend hours developing their entry strategies but then they end up in taking bad exits. Normally, people lack effective exit planning. Entering is an easy part, but where you get out determines your profit or loss.
CONCLUSION
The above mentioned are the important pillars with each having a different role in forex trading. Altogether can make you achieve success in forex trading when followed with an aim to gain profit.
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WEEKLY TRADES THREAD 02Oct2016 - 07Oct2016

Last week's thread was phenomenal. Keep it going!
As always:
Technical trades must include entry, SL, TP, and reasoning .... But we strongly suggest charts!
Fundamental trades must include entry, SL, TP, and reasoning .... But we strongly recommend links to news.
Every one of you should be using a calendar
This week: keep your eyes on the bigger market. Deutsche Bank is under heavy pressure. There are two options, both "bad" for Merkel (bad from her perspective):
Also, keep an eye on oil; rumors are about of an oil pop which gives us action on CAD.
Good hunting!
Last week's thread: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/54ee84/weekly_trades_thread_25sept16_to_30sept16/
submitted by El_Huachinango to Forex [link] [comments]

CAD/JPY Technical Analysis #TradeIn60Seconds GBP/AUD and CAD/JPY Live Forecast With The Help of Harmonic Pattern  Price Action  Forex Strategy ZAR/Jpy and CAD/JPY Live Forecast With The Help of Price Action  Trading Trick  Forex Strategy FOREX CAD/JPY Start 200,- Euro WIN #free4fx #4free #roboforex Forex Trade CAD/JPY USD/JPY, USD/CAD and CAD/JPY analysis by a Forex fund manager  Managed Forex A/c  Keon Consultancy

Find the current Canadian Dollar Japanese Yen rate and access to our CAD JPY converter, charts, historical data, news, and more. Erhalten Sie aktuelle Marktinfos zum CAD/JPY, inklusive CAD JPY Live-Kurs, Nachrichten, Kanadischer Dollar und Japanischer Yen Prognosen und Analysen. CAD/JPY Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen. BUY SELL. HIGH LOW CHANGE % CHANGE. TEST YOUR TRADING STRATEGIES. Get a demo account. Latest Research EU indices up TA focus on L'Oreal . Philippe Delabarre, Theo Ramos November 9, 2020 3:15 AM European stocks report AstraZeneca Infineon Technologies Volkswagen EQT... Read More. TAGS: Commodities, Equities, Indices. Weaker JPY after Tankan ... Get the latest market information about the CAD/JPY pair including CAD JPY Live Rate, News, Canadian Dollar and Japanese Yen Forecast and Analysis. CAD JPY (Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen) The Canadian Dollar vs. the Japanese Yen. When a trader is unsure about trading the US Dollar, the CADJPY is often determined to be a suitable replacement. However, the historically higher yield of the Canadian dollar in the past has made the CADJPY more sensitive to market wide sentiment changes than the USDJPY. Also, Canada’s large amount of energy ... CADJPY Currency Chart. Even though both the Japanese Yen and the Canadian Dollar are currencies of commodity-influenced economies, the pair that they make is not considered to be a major commodity pair. As a matter of fact, this pair is not even a major at all, despite the fact that the JPY is indeed a major on its own. The CAD on the other hand is not. The CAD. Canada is to this day under the ... Get instant access to a free live streaming CAD JPY chart. This unique Canadian Dollar Japanese Yen chart enables you to clearly notice the behavior of this pair.

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CAD/JPY Technical Analysis #TradeIn60Seconds

#forex #cadjpy #cad #jpy #trading #forextrading #forextrader #trader #forexsignals #forexsignal #forexanalysis #forexlifestyle #money #invest #finance #stocks Category Education USD/JPY, USD/CAD and CAD/JPY analysis by a Forex fund manager Managed Forex A/c Keon Consultancy Free signals group- https://t.me/BullishKingsignals Subscribe my Channel to learn Price Action Trading Tricks For Currency INDEX Chart Visit- https://forexvi... Free signals group- https://t.me/forexvisitsignals Subscribe my Channel to learn Price Action Trading Tricks For Currency INDEX Chart Visit- https://forexvis... #free4fx #4free #roboforex FOREX CAD/JPY RoboForex Holen sie sich einen FOREX Expert Advisor GRATIS 💥 Hol dir 30,- $ Start Bonus http://bit.ly/30-StartBonus ... Developing aspiring forex traders into independent and consistently profitable forex traders is our ultimate goal! In this video, I’ll show you the setup on the forex pair, CAD/JPY, and WHY it ...

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